Thieves stealing $100,000 worth of copper wiring from a Fresno County, California solar installation resulted in $2.8 million in total estimated damages (source), with secondary impacts driving the multiplicative cost of the theft. The theft occurred in just several hours, yet the consequences stretched across months of downtime, damaged equipment, and costly repairs.
With consistently elevated copper prices and copper prices hitting historic highs in the summer of 2025, reports of theft have also become more ubiquitous, impacting both a wide range of industries beyond solar (such as telecommunications, trucking, and wind) and a wide range of countries (such as Japan, England, and Canada). And in many cases, the scale of the theft is significant, such as in the April 2025 case of Spain’s Civil Guard seizing 8.5 tons of stolen copper linked to a theft ring targeting solar assets.
Demand-side and supply-side factors will likely keep upward pressure on copper prices– making copper theft a continued risk that solar companies must manage, especially for assets located in isolated or rural locations.
Copper Price Inflation: Structural and Persistent
Copper prices have stayed above US$4 per pound throughout 2025, and U.S. COMEX copper futures jumped to a record high (≈$12,300 per metric ton, or $5.7/lb) after the Trump administration announced plans for a 50% tariff on copper imports (Reuters). The policy shock widened the premium of U.S. futures over London Metal Exchange (LME) prices and has injected fresh volatility into procurement planning for energy infrastructure and electrification projects.
For solar asset owners, this spike is not an isolated blip; it extends a multi-year trend of tightening fundamentals that make every theft incident more expensive to remediate.
Significant supply-side constraints and a step-change in demand driven by the energy transition are likely to keep copper prices at higher levels:
Demand super-cycle from electrification and digital infrastructure.
Electrification—EVs, grid expansion, renewable generation, and AI-driven data centers—adds persistent incremental tonnage. EVs require 2.4 times more copper than a standard internal combustion engine, while renewable energy infrastructure requires 2.5 to 7 times more copper per MW compared to fossil fuel technologies. Ultimately, the demand from clean energy will go from 25% of global copper demand to 61% by 2040, which puts further pressure on supply-side constraints.
Supply-side constraints: forecasted supply gap of 8 million tons over the next decade.
Amongst rising prices and a looming spike in demand from electrification, capital investment for exploration and development of copper mines peaked in 2013 at US$26.13 billion, with only US$14.42 billion in 2022. Mature metal markets like copper face rising capital intensity, driven by declining ore grades and limited resource availability. High-quality copper projects are becoming increasingly rare, and the average time from discovery to production is lengthy at 16.5 years.
And in the U.S., if the 50% tariff on copper imports are implemented as announced, it is estimated to add $8.6 billion to the cost of raw and refined copper imported. More than half of the copper consumed in the U.S. is imported (primarily from Chile, China, Mexico, and Peru), with the U.S. only mining 5% of the world’s copper ore versus China’s 44%. Spinning up new mines in the United States to meet demand will also be difficult, as half of U.S. copper reserves are on federally managed lands which lead to extended approval timelines (average of 29 years).
Operational Risk: Compounding Losses from Copper Theft
High prices will continue to make copper wiring theft a persistent security risk on solar farms, which generates cascading impacts for asset managers across multiple domains:
Material replacement costs: Copper wiring priced at $4–$5 per pound significantly inflates replacement budgets, especially at scale.
Field labor costs: Crews must be dispatched to assess damage, replace wiring, and safely recommission systems.
Lost production revenue: Downtime during remediation results in missed generation targets and revenue losses.
In addition to these direct costs, insurance-related challenges are compounding the financial risk. Increased premiums and higher deductibles further threaten project IRR.
The inflation of the theft of $100,000 in copper wiring into a total of $2.8 million in costs is not an incident isolated to that solar farm or even to the solar industry: the theft of $11,000 in copper wiring from a Los Angeles, California bridge is estimated to cost $2.5 million in repairs (source).
Remote, Expansive, Expensive: Why Solar Farms are at Risk
Large-scale solar installations possess inherent features that make them difficult to secure, while containing high volumes of valuable materials and equipment (such as PV modules and copper wiring):
Remote siting: Facilities are often located far from population centers and law enforcement.
Expansive layouts: Large footprints increase the number of vulnerable access points.
Low overnight visibility: Minimal on-site presence and limited lighting during non-operational hours.
These structural factors complicate traditional security approaches, including perimeter fencing, static cameras, and motion-sensitive lighting.
Autonomous Aerial Monitoring: A Strategic Deterrent
Advanced surveillance technologies—particularly autonomous drones equipped with thermal and night-vision capabilities—offer a scalable security enhancement. Key functionalities include:
Routine nighttime patrols via programmed flight paths
Real-time thermal detection of intrusions
Immediate alerts sent to site operators or third-party responders
One example is Raptor Solar Sentry, which enables autonomous, remote nighttime drone operations—providing persistent visual oversight during the hours when theft risk peaks.
Strategic Implications for Solar Asset Managers
Copper theft is no longer a rare inconvenience—it’s a recurrent, high-impact threat that intersects with financial, operational, and insurance risk domains. As market dynamics drive copper’s value higher, solar operators must evolve their risk posture accordingly.
Securing valuable assets like solar farms require a smart, technology-driven approach that adds layers of security. Proactive deterrence using nighttime autonomous drone flights represents a step towards continuous situational awareness.
If you are interested in learning more about nighttime asset security using Sentry, reach out to us here.
Next steps
From the civil engineering on your site down to the wiring on the back of your panels, the Raptor Solar platform provides you detailed, up-to-date data on the conditions and performance of your solar fleet so that your team has the intel they need to do their jobs effectively, quickly, and safely.
